The Spring Forecast 2026 centres on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) updated Economic and Fiscal Outlook, and the Chancellor’s speech. Unlike a full fiscal event, this publication does not introduce a wide-ranging package of new tax measures. Instead, it updates the official projections for economic growth, inflation, employment, borrowing, debt and tax receipts over the five-year forecast period.
The Chancellor noted that ongoing geopolitical developments in the Middle East, including recent conflict involving Iran, contribute to global uncertainty and reinforce the value of a stable fiscal framework in navigating external shocks. Closer to home, the Chancellor stressed, “Inflation is down, borrowing is down, living standards are up, and the economy is growing.”
Although policy announcements are limited, the forecast itself is materially important. The projected path for borrowing and debt determines the government’s fiscal position heading into the remainder of the Parliament. The forecast also sets expectations for the tax burden, spending pressures and financial conditions, all of which affect households and businesses directly.
This document explains the key components of the March 2026 forecast, including:
• Revisions to growth, inflation and labour market assumptions
• The projected decline in public sector net borrowing
• The stabilisation of debt at historically high levels
• The continued rise in the tax-to-GDP ratio
• Confirmed spending measures incorporated since November 2025
• The principal risks identified by the OBR
The analysis is based on the published Economic and Fiscal Outlook and the Chancellor’s statement to Parliament. It focuses on confirmed projections and incorporated measures, clearly distinguishing between established policy and forecast assumptions.
The objective is to provide a clear, structured assessment of the Spring Forecast and its practical implications for individuals and businesses, without speculation beyond the published material.